Wall Street · United Kingdom · Fortune Technology
The U.K. is getting a new prime minister, but bond investors are really in charge and ‘hyper-reactive,’ Wall Street veteran says
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 source. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
◌ Single Source
Andy Burnham will become the United Kingdom’s seventh prime minister in a decade on Monday, and must face the consequences of a bond market fiasco from three administrations ago.
Key facts
- The IMF added that foreign investors have become bigger participants in the U.K. bond market, estimating that global factors accounted for 60%-90% of the variation in yields between 2020 and 2026
- Bond investors kept former PM Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves on a short leash and sent yields up in response to their borrowing plans
- Market feedback suggests that the September 2022 gilt market turmoil marked a structural shift in the fragility of the gilt market,” it said
- But the Labour Party leader will not escape its grip, according to Ed Yardeni, the Wall Street veteran who coined the term “bond vigilantes” in the 1980s, referring to traders who protested huge U.S
Summary
A report from the International Monetary Fund this week highlighted the baggage that still hangs over the world’s fifth largest economy: a 2022 budget with unfunded spending hikes and tax cuts that sparked an investor revolt leading to the ouster of Liz Truss as premier after only 44 days. “Market feedback suggests that the September 2022 gilt market turmoil marked a structural shift in the fragility of the gilt market,” it said. The IMF added that foreign investors have become bigger participants in the U.K. bond market, estimating that global factors accounted for 60%-90% of the variation in yields between 2020 and 2026. That could leave the U.K. more vulnerable to volatile capital flows and “fast money” that’s more price sensitive, the report warned.