Bitcoin · CryptoSlate
Bitcoin rallied on cheaper gas while Americans expect rents to surge 8.3%
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Those are completely different things, and it's important to tell them apart.
Key facts
- The Fed is currently holding rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, and nine of its 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year
- In May, retail sales came in at $763.7 billion, up 0.9% from April
- Headline inflation fell 0.4% in June, the biggest one-month drop since 2020, pulling the annual rate down to 3.5%
- Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release showed import prices rose 0.3% in June, a sharp deceleration from the 1.9% jump in May and the 2.0% rise in April
Summary
01 June retail sales looked soft, but spending held up once cheaper gasoline was stripped out. 02 That matters because headline spending and import prices both mask underlying pressure, from inflation to tariff effects. 03 The unresolved risk is that consumers are spending faster than incomes while factory output stalls and July oil rebounds. There's a question buried in this week's US economic data that sounds simple but is surprisingly hard to answer: when Americans spend more money, does that mean they're buying more, or paying more for the same stuff?