Polymarket · SEC · Republicans · US Senate · CryptoSlate
SEC reviews more than 24 ETFs that could bring election betting to brokerage accounts
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More than 24 prediction market ETFs proposed by Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares remain in regulatory limbo, with the SEC yet to act despite the issuers filing their applications in February.
Key facts
- Total US ETF assets were $15.7 trillion as of the end of May, meaning even 0.1% of that base landing in prediction market ETFs would put the category near $15.7 billion
- Bitwise matched the three election bets with its own PredictionShares lineup, then went further with funds wagering on Bitcoin at $100,000, Ethereum at $3,500, and WTI crude oil clearing a specified
- Annualizing June's volume figure, a 1% migration of that trading activity into regulated ETF channels amounts to roughly $1.6 billion, and a 10% migration reaches close to $ 16.4 billion
- Monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket peaked at nearly $13.7 billion in June 2026, driven by the FIFA World Cup
Summary
01 The SEC is reviewing more than 24 prediction market ETF filings from Roundhill, Bitwise and GraniteShares submitted in February. 02 Approval could move election and event contracts into ordinary brokerage accounts, widening access to binary bets for retail investors. 03 The filings remain stalled over valuation, settlement and disclosure concerns, including when a market outcome can be treated as decided. The agency pushed back the expected launch timing to gain clarity on fund mechanics and investor disclosures, delaying products that would have reached the market through the normal 75-day automatic effectiveness window.