Bitcoin · The Block
‘Bottom building in progress’: Analysts say bitcoin holder capitulation signals late-stage bear market
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Bitcoin has traded below its True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for five straight months, one of the longest deep-value stretches in its history, according to Glassnode's latest onchain report.
Key facts
- Daily ETF trading volume of $650 million to $950 million remains about 80% below the $4.4 billion peak recorded in October 2025
- The 30-day average of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds net flows shifted into a monthly outflow regime in mid-May, peaked at negative $193 million per day in early June, and has since eased
- Even so, wage growth remains at 3.5%, and M2 hit a record $23.05 trillion in May, keeping inflation the binding constraint ahead of the July 14 CPI print
- Long-term holder loss realization now accounts for 43% of total realized value onchain, up from 15% in early February, and recently peaked at $280 million per day, the highest reading since December
Summary
Long-term holder loss realization now accounts for 43% of total realized value onchain, up from 15% in early February, and recently peaked at $280 million per day, the highest reading since December 2022. ’s price page, bitcoin (BTC) traded below $63,000 on Thursday. Glassnode's onchain data identifies long-term holder capitulation as the single largest source of downward price pressure. Investors who bought near the cycle top and held through months of drawdown are increasingly exiting as the bear market extends beyond their conviction threshold, the firm said.