California · Polymarket · Wired
Prediction Markets Let You Bet on Whether a Wildfire Will Burn Down Your Town
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Sylvie Andrews and her partner didn’t lose the new house they’d helped build when the Eaton Fire ripped through Altadena, California, in January 2025.
Key facts
- Markets usually frame questions in a “yes” or “no” fashion, with the price of a “contract” fluctuating between $0 and $1
- In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions, created by the platform’s “markets team,” related to the wildfires burning up Southern California
- That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people
- People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine
Summary
That fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed 31 people. Prediction markets are gambling websites where people bet on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, the weather, and more. Markets usually frame questions in a “yes” or “no” fashion, with the price of a “contract” fluctuating between $0 and $1. In January 2025, Polymarket listed almost 20 questions, created by the platform’s “markets team,” related to the wildfires burning up Southern California. How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday, three days after it ignited on a Tuesday? People spent $1.2 million betting on these queries, according to Aeon Magazine.