Polymarket · Hong Kong · CoinDesk
Americans traded $571 million on Polymarket politic bets despite U.S. ban
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 source. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
★ Tier-1 Source
Americans are not supposed to be on Polymarket, but they were its biggest national political crowd over the last year anyway.
Key facts
- Wallets tied to the U.S. traded $571 million in notional value across Polymarket's political markets in the trailing 12 months, more than any other country and ahead of Hong Kong's $422 million
- On markets that have resolved, U.S. wallets backed the winner 81.9% of the time against 80.3% for everyone else, effectively no edge, and returns if held were nearly identical
- Americans bet more boldly, at one point placing 53% of their volume on a U.S. invasion of Iran when the rest of the market sat at 26%, but they picked winners no better
- As such, Allium can tie only about 6% of Polymarket's political-market wallets to a country
- so the firm says the figures should be read as directional rather than exact
Summary
Despite being barred from Polymarket, U.S.-linked wallets traded about $571 million in political markets over the past year, more than any other country, according to on-chain analysis firm Allium. Allium found that Americans disproportionately bet on geopolitics rather than elections, with U.S. wallets heavily trading markets on foreign wars and novelty events that regulated U.S. venues generally do not offer. The data shows U.S. traders are no better at picking winners than others, but their persistent offshore activity underscores a policy dilemma for regulators over whether to bring such markets onshore or leave them outside U.S. oversight. Wallets tied to the U.S. traded $571 million in notional value across Polymarket's political markets in the trailing 12 months, more than any other country and ahead of Hong Kong's $422 million, a new report by onchain analysis firm Allium found.