White House · Mark Zuckerberg · Polymarket · Meta · NPR Technology
Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app
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Left: Meta CEO and Chairman Mark Zuckerberg arrives at Los Angeles Superior Court in February.
Key facts
- In June 2025, about $28 billion was traded every month on Kalshi and Polymarket
- Kalshi, which is overseen by commodities regulators in Washington, was valued at $22 billion in its latest funding round in May, up from a $2 billion valuation last year
- In the other case, DOJ accuses a Google employee who earned more than $1 million of using confidential data about search trends to correctly guess the most-Googled people of 2025
- Notably, Meta's purchases of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014 supercharged its reach and allowed it to become a colossal force in digital advertising
Summary
Before Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg directed employees to build a standalone prediction market app, he proposed buying Kalshi, the leading company in the prediction market sector, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly. Zuckerberg met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour about a possible takeover last year as Kalshi's popularity surged, but the negotiations never advanced, according to one of the people who had direct knowledge of the meeting. There are competing narratives about why the talks broke down, with some saying Mansour would not move forward with a sale and others indicating Meta considered the legal and ethical questions surrounding Kalshi too messy. Whatever made the discussions fall apart, Meta still wants to tap into the prediction market craze. Unlike Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, Meta's app will not take bets using real money.