Cynthia Lummis · White House · CLARITY Act · US Senate · CryptoSlate
Democrats have also raised AML provisions and the question of whether crypto companies should face bank-equivalent capital
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Whether that concession moves conditional Democrats to firm floor commitments is the operative question going into July.
Key facts
- The Senate enters a state work period from June 29 to July 10, and another one begins Aug. 10 and runs through Sept. 11
- Galaxy Research put 2026 passage odds at roughly 50-50, treating the August recess as the last realistic legislative gate
- That warning now doubles as a recruitment pitch to Thune: allocate July floor time or explain to the crypto industry why the bill that passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 died on the Senate calendar
- Legislation becomes harder to schedule as elections approach, and the coalition that produced a 294-134 House vote and a 15-9 Senate committee vote would face a reconstituted Congress of unknown
Summary
01 Cynthia Lummis says CLARITY negotiators expect final Senate compromise text around July 4 and aim to move the bill in July. 02 The bill needs July floor time and at least seven Democratic votes to survive a Senate cloture test. 03 Ethics, AML, and product-rule disputes remain unresolved, and failure before August recess could push the bill into fall. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Fox Business on June 24 that negotiators expect final Senate compromise language around the July 4 recess and then plan to “move in July,” the most public deadline any sponsor has set for a bill that cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May. The declaration came before Senate Majority Leader John Thune had announced floor time, before a final Senate floor package had been published, and before the ethics dispute that derailed a key negotiating meeting on June 9 had been resolved.