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He says global leaders know America ‘doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire’
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Ray Dalio has spent 42 years visiting China, building relationships with senior officials and studying its political history back to 221 BCE.
Key facts
- Ray Dalio has spent 42 years visiting China, building relationships with senior officials and studying its political history back to 221 BCE
- The tribute system governed Chinese foreign relations for roughly 2,000 years, from about 200 BCE until the late 19th century
- Over the past few months there has been a big shift in the world order,” Dalio wrote in a sweeping essay published June 18 on LinkedIn, where his newsletter has 750,000 subscribers
- Dalio said he suspects that Xi wants that reunification achieved during a potential new term beginning in 2028
Summary
“Over the past few months there has been a big shift in the world order,” Dalio wrote in a sweeping essay published June 18 on LinkedIn, where his newsletter has 750,000 subscribers. (A truncated version of the piece also previously appeared in the Financial Times.) The catalyst, in Dalio’s telling, was the United States ’ handling of Iran’s seizure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is a comparison that Dalio has been building toward for months: In March, he wrote in Fortune that the 2020s feel like “the rise of a new type of world order” resembling “pre-1945 world orders with great powers conflicts and gunboat diplomacy”—a view he illustrated with a Bank of America chart tracing 2,000 years of GDP dominance that showed China’s current ascent as a return to historical norms, not a disruption of them.
What Dalio observed in Beijing was not an adversarial standoff but rather a diplomatic migration.