S&P 500 · Bitcoin · CryptoSlate
Arthur Hayes confirms AI rescue liquidity could send Bitcoin price to $1,000,000
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Arthur Hayes outlined a path to $1 million Bitcoin price built around AI absorbing liquidity, the buildout collapsing under debt, authorities printing, and capital rotating into crypto.
Key facts
- Hayes made the argument on Bankless, saying that AI became the dominant capital sink, and his Substack essay noted that roughly $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between November 2022
- Bitcoin price fell roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak at $126,000, even as the money supply expanded
- Those 10 names now represent roughly 40% of the index, meaning that $100 invested in the S&P 500 is a bet that the AI story will continue
- Private credit outstanding to AI-related companies had grown from near zero to over $200 billion, with that share of total private credit climbing from below 1% to almost 8%
Summary
Hayes made the argument on Bankless, saying that AI became the dominant capital sink, and his Substack essay noted that roughly $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between November 2022 and mid-2026. The amount nearly matches the $1.5 trillion rise in the M2 money supply over the same period, with newly created dollars absorbed by data centers and GPU clusters before reaching Bitcoin's bid. Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, arrived at the same diagnosis from a different entry point. “AI is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, all the liquidity out of the room, and I think that's happening to Bitcoin as well.”