Polymarket · Donald Trump · Bitcoin · Bitcoin.com News
Traders Bet $16.4M on Bitcoin Staying Below $75K Through June, Here’s the Full Breakdown
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Across Polymarket and Kalshi, traders have deployed more than $78 million in bitcoin price prediction bets for 2026, and the collective signal is clear: the crowd is not expecting a breakout.
Key facts
- The contract settles based on a 60-second average of CF Benchmarks’ Bitcoin Real-Time Index at 12:00 AM EST on January 1, 2027
- The $100,000 milestone for June carries less than 1% odds, with “Yes” shares trading at 0.3 cents on $1.97 million in volume
- The $72,500 threshold carries 18% odds, and the $70,000 upside target holds 38% odds on $644,930 in volume
- On the downside, Polymarket bettors give bitcoin a $55,000 floor, an 8% chance, and a drop to $50,000 a 4% chance
Summary
Polymarket’s $42.7M bitcoin 2026 market gives 19% odds to a $100K price, with 53% betting on a sub-$50K dip. Kalshi traders set a $66K year-end forecast on $25.8M in volume, with the highest probability in the $50K–$55K range. Both Polymarket and Kalshi give bitcoin’s $150K target only 4%–7% odds before December 31, 2026. On Polymarket ‘s June price market, which has recorded $15.56 million in total trading volume, the data reflects the current bitcoin price of $65,796.