Bitcoin · Galaxy Digital · Cointelegraph
Bitcoin’s ‘calm top’ challenges most market bottom estimates: Research
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 source. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
◌ Single Source
New data from Galaxy Research suggests that Bitcoin's floor price may not drop as low as previous bear markets, but the bottom-finding process is still playing out.
Key facts
- Thorn noted that, based on the current cost basis of $53,600, Galaxy estimates a base-case bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000
- A deeper "washout scenario" points to $30,000-$37,000, while a shallower decline could hold near $51,000-$54,000
- Past cycle bottoms, including the November 2022 FTX-driven sell-off, formed at or slightly below the realized price, suggesting the bottom range may again fall below the cost basis of $53,600
- Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, peaked at 2.29, compared with 2.93 to 5.91 in prior cycles
Summary
New research from Galaxy Digital suggests that Bitcoin's cycle low could form at higher price levels than previous bear markets due to the absence of speculation. Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn analyzed every Bitcoin cycle top and bottom and noted that the four-year cycle continues to track closely with BTC’s historical timing. Thorn argued that Bitcoin’s October 2025 top differed from previous cycle peaks. The report also found that several key bottoming signals are still absent.