Polymarket · Coinbase · Decrypt
Americans Traded Up to $34 Billion on Offshore Prediction Markets: Study
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★ Tier-1 Source
Americans were responsible for up to $34 billion in offshore prediction market trading volumes during the 12-month period ending in April 2026, according to a new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an industry group that includes regulated prediction market operators like Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase.
Key facts
- The findings highlighted Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, estimating that around $10.6-$26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing 12 months trading volume was attributable to U.S. users
- He found that $11–34 BILLION in offshore prediction market activity is by users in the U.S
- Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant
- Data from a Dune dashboard notes that the regulated U.S. version of Polymarket has posted around $5 billion in notional volumes to date
Summary
A new study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets found Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets during a 12-month span. It estimated that up to 30% of Polymarket's trading volume during the period came from Americans. Offshore prediction market trading volume by Americans could grow to as much as $133 billion by 2030, the study estimated. The study, which was conducted by Rutgers professor and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee member Harry Crane, compared data from offshore platforms—or those that do not allow U.S. users and are not regulated by the CFTC—with platforms that have exclusively U.S. users, or exclusively non-U.S. users.