Polymarket · The Block
Americans secretly drove as much as $34 billion in offshore prediction market bets, new report argues
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★ Tier-1 Source
U.S. users are continuing to access prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets that are supposed to geo-fence the entire country, according to a new research report from Crane Zeng, a boutique consulting firm specializing in analytics, political strategy, and prediction markets.
Key facts
- In 2024, offshore prediction markets accounted for 84.4% of the estimated $16.8 billion in combined annual volume across the platforms tracked here," the firm wrote
- On Thursday, the consultancy firm published a report claiming that some $11 billion to $34 billion of total offshore prediction market volume came from U.S. users
- Bernstein, cited in the report, said in April that prediction market volume could grow to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, at an 80% compound annual growth rate
- Offshore platforms account for 54% of this total, down sharply from 84% in 2024," the report said
Summary
On Thursday, the consultancy firm published a report claiming that some $11 billion to $34 billion of total offshore prediction market volume came from U.S. users. "Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity on offshore prediction markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares of regulated and offshore markets," an executive summary of the report said. Prediction markets have exploded in popularity over the past two years, largely driven by market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. Bernstein, cited in the report, said in April that prediction market volume could grow to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, at an 80% compound annual growth rate.