Polymarket · CLARITY Act · US Senate · CryptoSlate
Crypto’s CLARITY push heats up, but prediction markets aren’t buying the August deadline
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Crypto groups and Senate allies are ramping up pressure for a CLARITY Act floor vote, while prediction markets are growing less convinced the bill can become law before August.
Key facts
- The push comes roughly three weeks after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act on May 14 by a 15-9 bipartisan vote
- Outside forecasters have moved in the same direction, with Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn reportedly trimming his 2026 CLARITY passage estimate from 75% to 60% on Senate calendar risk, while JPMorgan
- Bitcoin would get a secondary bid from improved institutional risk appetite and ETF flow normalization, following 13 consecutive sessions that drained $4.4 billion in flows from US-traded spot
- Polymarket's contract on whether CLARITY gets signed into law in 2026 sat at 62% on June 3 and fell to 51% by June 8
Summary
Crypto groups and Senate allies are ramping up pressure for a CLARITY Act floor vote, while prediction markets are growing less convinced the bill can become law before August. 01 More than 200 crypto companies and groups urged Senate leaders to bring the CLARITY Act to the floor for a vote. 02 Supporters say a federal framework would keep digital asset activity from shifting offshore and give markets clearer rules. 03 But Senate timing is unresolved, and markets now price a shrinking chance of passage before August. A coalition of more than 200 companies and organizations sent a letter dated June 7 to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, urging them to bring the CLARITY Act to the full Senate floor for a vote without delay.