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Decrypt Asked 7 AI Agents to Predict the 2026 World Cup: Here's What They Said
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The 2026 World Cup kicks off in days, which means half the planet is about to pretend it can predict the future.
Key facts
- Pick Spain 15–18% / Five weighted buckets, no simulation
- final: Spain 2-1 France
- Pick Argentina 22% / Research-only, no sims
- final: Argentina 2-1 Spain
- Qwen had Argentina beating Spain 2-1, with Spain stranded down in fifth at 10%—the only model that didn't even put La Roja on the podium
- Pick Spain 33% / Pure-Elo Monte Carlo, 50,000 sims
- final: Spain vs Argentina
Summary
Seven frontier AI models were each handed the same 2026 World Cup draw and told to forecast a champion their own way. Four picked Spain, the boldest being Stepfun at 33%; three picked defending champion Argentina, the boldest being Qwen at 22%. Myriad, the prediction market run by Decrypt's parent company, agrees on the favorite—Spain 19%, France 17%—but prices Argentina at 10%, as of June 7. Everybody's got a take.