AI · Crypto Briefing
WTO logs slowing global merchandise trade growth, signaling risks for crypto and risk assets
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The WTO's latest trade barometer dipped to 101.7 from 102.3 in January, as projected 2026 growth drops sharply from last year's AI-fueled surge.
Key facts
- The WTO's latest trade barometer dipped to 101.7 from 102.3 in January, as projected 2026 growth drops sharply from last year's AI-fueled surge
- Services trade growth is expected to ease to 4.8% in 2026, down from 5.3% in 2025
- Merchandise trade volume grew a robust 4.6% in 2025, a year turbocharged by insatiable demand for AI-enabling hardware
- For 2026, the WTO projects that growth rate plummets to 1.9%
Summary
The reading still sits above 100, which is the long-term trend baseline. Merchandise trade volume grew a robust 4.6% in 2025, a year turbocharged by insatiable demand for AI-enabling hardware. For 2026, the WTO projects that growth rate plummets to 1.9%. The WTO’s March 2026 Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report laid out these projections, and the latest barometer reading is consistent with that trajectory.