U.S. Treasury · Bitcoin · CryptoSlate
Short-dated bills now yield close to 4%, a safe and liquid return that competes directly with speculative bets
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Key facts
- The selling has been relentless, with BTC sliding below $70,000 on June 2 for the first time since April and changing hands near $63,650 by June 4, after briefly breaking under $62,000 intraday
- According to Treasury's own quarterly refunding documents, the department is assuming a $900 billion balance at the end of June, with the figure set to peak near $1 trillion, give or take $50
- In December, it stopped shrinking its balance sheet and started buying Treasury bills at a pace of up to $40 billion a month to keep reserves ample, a hidden liquidity signal that lifted balances
- Bitcoin is +2.42% over the past 24 hours and currently sits at rank # 1 by market cap
Summary
01 The Treasury plans to rebuild its cash balance to about $900 billion by end-June, pulling money from markets. 02 That matters because Bitcoin depends on loose liquidity, and the refill could absorb cash while rate-cut hopes fade. 03 The key unknown is whether bill buyers come from reverse repo, bank reserves, or fresh demand that leaves markets unfazed. Bitcoin traders have spent the past week bracing for the wrong kind of surprise, watching rate-cut bets evaporate as a run of firm labor data pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve hike by year-end toward 85% and dragged the 10-year Treasury yield up near 4.5%. Understandably, it dominates the screens, given how much of the past two years of price action has hinged on the cost of money.