Starlink · SpaceX · Elon Musk · United Kingdom · China · Crypto Briefing
The AI revenue projection of $190 billion by 2030 is perhaps the most testable near-term claim
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The investment bank's IPO roadshow analysis envisions Elon Musk's rocket company generating more revenue than most countries' GDP within 15 years.
Key facts
- Going from $18.7 billion to $3.4 trillion in 15 years implies a compound annual growth rate of roughly 42%
- Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX’s AI business alone could generate $190 billion in revenue by 2030
- The adjusted EBITDA projection of over $2.7 trillion implies margins around 79%
- The AI revenue projection of $190 billion by 2030 is perhaps the most testable near-term claim
Summary
Morgan Stanley wants investors to believe SpaceX will be worth more than the current GDP of the United Kingdom by 2040. Here’s the thing: SpaceX pulled in $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025. The projections were shared with investors on June 5, 2026, as part of SpaceX’s IPO roadshow. One notable detail: Chinese and Hong Kong investors have been barred from participating in the IPO.