Polymarket · CoinDesk
A large hiring wave announces trading firms are no longer viewing Polymarket as a niche betting system
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◎ Multiple-sources
Chicago-based trading giant DRW has spent decades profiting from mismatches between different asset classes, and now it's building a dedicated prediction market desk targeting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
Key facts
- Polymarket alone processed between $22 billion and $40 billion across political, economic and sports markets in 2025, up from virtually nothing three years ago and a growing share
- On the morning of May 14, Andy Burnham's odds of becoming the next U.K. leader in the betting of “Next UK Prime Minister” on Polymarket surged from 24 cents to 43 cents as political speculation
- HyperLiquid, the onchain perpetuals exchange that processed over $10 billion in daily volume at its peak, is already preparing to launch prediction markets ahead of the 2026 World Cup, featuring 64
- A trader whose model values Arsenal's Champions League chances at 47% while contracts trade at 43 cents may buy and profit if the market eventually converges toward that estimate
Summary
Major quantitative trading firms like DRW, Wintermute and IMC are building dedicated desks to trade on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, treating them as a serious asset class. These firms are less focused on forecasting outcomes than on exploiting short-term pricing inefficiencies across platforms, using high-speed arbitrage and market microstructure strategies honed in traditional finance and crypto. While veteran sports betting groups still drive most of the pricing accuracy, institutional players are entering fast as volumes surge and new infrastructure, including onchain exchanges like HyperLiquid, is built ahead of major events like the 2026 World Cup.