SpaceX · U.S. · Amazon · Fortune Technology
Indeed, SpaceX’s S-1 filing famously disclosed that it shed $4.9 billion in 2025 on puny revenues of $18.7 billion
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Trainer’s model uses discounted cash flows projections to pinpoint the results SpaceX must show to justify a $1.75 trillion valuation.
Key facts
- So a decade hence, Elon Musk’s creation, at $1.1 trillion in revenue, would account for 2.4% of national income ($1.1 trillion divided by $46.7 trillion)
- Indeed, SpaceX’s S-1 filing famously revealed that it lost $4.9 billion in 2025 on puny revenues of $18.7 billion
- Here’s the haymaker: In this scenario, SpaceX’s revenues would jump from year-end 2034 to the close of 2035 from $718 billion to $1.1 trillion, maintaining the 50% annual pace, for an increase
- From 2024 to 2025, Nvidia, the fastest grower, added $85 billion in sales, one-fourth the clincher for SpaceX in the final year of Trainer’s timeline
Summary
The pending SpaceX IPO is generating lots of buzz by introducing the most valuable enterprise of all time at an expected market cap of $1.75 trillion. As this writer has previously noted, one of America’s top valuation experts has put precise numbers on the benchmarks SpaceX needs to hit if investors are going to pocket anything like the gains you’d want for betting on this ultra-risky stock. By Trainer’s projections, the revenue target that would score by 2035 is the first such number ever followed by a “t,” $1.1 trillion. That’s a stunner, especially when you consider that over the past four quarters, the highest sales posted by any U.S. company was the $742 billion recorded by Amazon.