Polymarket · Strategy · Michael Saylor · Bitcoin · CoinDesk
The company's filing says it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and 31
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The dispute turns on a single ambiguity: the rules ask whether Strategy sold bitcoin "by 11:59 PM ET" on May 31, but they don't say whether that means the sale must have occurred by then or been confirmed by then.
Key facts
- The company's filing says it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and 31
- The dispute turns on a single ambiguity: the rules ask whether Strategy sold bitcoin "by 11:59 PM ET" on May 31, but they don't say whether that means the sale must have occurred by then
- Strategy executed the trades between May 26 and 31 and dated the activity "as of May 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m
- Traders priced it accordingly, with the May 31 contract collapsing from 81% "Yes" during the dispute to under 1%
Summary
A $79 million Polymarket bet on whether Strategy (MSTR) sold bitcoin by May 31 hinges on whether the contract is governed by the date of the sale itself or the later date of its public disclosure. One camp argues the market is event-based and should resolve “Yes” because Strategy’s own filing dates the 32 BTC sale inside the window, while another insists only information knowable by the May 31 deadline counts and therefore the market must resolve “No.” A smaller group says the rules were too vague to resolve at all, even as Polymarket has since endorsed the “No” interpretation, leaving the final decision to UMA token holders, who have previously diverged from the platform.