Strategy’s bitcoin sale sparks a $14 million betting chaos on Polymarket
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Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) first publicized bitcoin sale has triggered a $15 million resolution dispute on Polymarket.
Key facts
Strategy sold those bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, but the 8-K was filed on Monday, June 1
in Polymarket is built on time-stamp-based contracts, each resolving to 'Yes' if Michael Saylor's Strategy sold any bitcoin by 11:59 p.m
Heading into the filing, Polymarket had priced odds of any Strategy bitcoin sale before year-end at 84%, up from 10% earlier in the spring, after CEO Phong Le's first-quarter earnings call comments
Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) first publicized bitcoin sale has triggered a $15 million resolution dispute on Polymarket
Summary
A $15 million Polymarket prediction market is in dispute after Strategy’s first disclosed bitcoin sale raised questions about whether trades executed between May 26 and May 31 count toward a May 31 deadline. 'Yes' bettors argue that onchain timestamps and Strategy’s 8-K, which reports 32 bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 and presents activity “as of May 31, 2026, 4:00 p.m. The contested May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31 contracts have drawn about $24.7 million in volume, and UMA’s optimistic oracle will make the final determination, even as later-dated markets now price Strategy bitcoin sales as a near-certainty. While the sale was announced in a June 1 filing, the actual disposition occurred in late May.