New Texans, Latino doubts about Trump cloud Paxton's Senate bid
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Texas has gained more than 2.5 million new residents since 2020, roughly the entire population of New Mexico, reshaping the electorate and injecting new uncertainty into this year's marquee Senate race.
Key facts
Texas added nearly 400,000 residents in 2025, the most of any state, bringing its population to 31.7 million, according to an Axios review of U.S. Census data analyzed by Mendoza Law Firm
Texas has gained more than 2.5 million new residents since 2020, roughly the entire population of New Mexico, reshaping the electorate and injecting new uncertainty into this year's marquee Senate
Republican Ken Paxton is favored to defeat Democrat James Talarico in November, but the influx of new arrivals, along with fading Latino support for President Trump and booming exurban counties
What makes 2026 structurally different from prior cycles is the sheer volume of demographic change
Summary
Republican Ken Paxton is favored to defeat Democrat James Talarico in November, but the influx of new arrivals, along with fading Latino support for President Trump and booming exurban counties, has scrambled the political math in typically red Texas. Texas added nearly 400,000 residents in 2025, the most of any state, bringing its population to 31.7 million, according to an Axios review of U.S. Census data analyzed by Mendoza Law Firm. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston that newcomers tend to be less tied to Texas' long-standing political patterns. That gives Democrats more persuadable voters than they had when the electorate was more stable and Republicans had a stronger hold on it.