Polymarket · Donald Trump · U.S. · US Congress · CryptoSlate
How a disputed $1 billion claim became a powerful weapon against prediction markets
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On the American Gaming Association's website, a counter has been climbing for months, tallying what the casino-and-sportsbook lobby says states and tribes have lost to prediction markets.
Key facts
- Monthly prediction-market trading climbed from around $1.2 billion in early 2025 to more than $20 billion by early 2026
- However, it also comes at a pretty inconvenient time for the gambling industry in the US, as it closed out its best year ever, generating $78.72 billion in revenue and a record $18.09 billion
- The Federal government already collects a 0.25% excise tax on legal sports-betting handle, which AGA argues exists to target illegal bookmaking
- Lawmakers seemed to be expecting that: in March, Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a bipartisan bill that would bar any CFTC-registered venue
Summary
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let people trade contracts on real-world outcomes, and a fast-growing share of that activity amounts to sports betting by another route, with users buying yes-or-no positions priced like odds on questions such as who wins Sunday's game. Because the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates them at the federal level, these platforms have been able to operate in all fifty states, including the ones where traditional sportsbooks are heavily restricted or outright banned. The assertion that these platforms led to a billion dollars of lost tax revenue boils a dense jurisdictional fight down to something the average voter can easily grasp.