Bitcoin · CoinDesk
Bitcoin's wild days are over, and Trace Mayer confirms that's a good thing
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Bitcoin’s BTC $ 73,572.94 trademark volatility was for years treated as both its greatest feature and its biggest flaw.
Key facts
- Recently, that roller coaster has quieted into something resembling a smooth ride, with volatility collapsing to roughly 35 from a high of 120 in 2021
- On a five-year lookback, one standard deviation above the mean sits around 1.3, two standard deviations at 1.6, and three at 2.13
- His blog was running in 2008 before Bitcoin existed, and he regularly presented at major gold conferences that drew 2,000-3,000 attendees
- A reading above 1 means bitcoin is trading above its long-term average, below 1 means it's trading beneath it
Summary
Bitcoin volatility has dropped from around 120 in 2017 to 35 as institutional participation and options markets add stability to the asset. Mayer believes lower volatility makes bitcoin more investable for corporations, family offices, and institutional investors. Despite long-term concerns around miner security incentives and quantum computing, Mayer remains bullish on bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply versus gold. Mayer suggested that bitcoin’s declining volatility isn't a sign of weakness, but rather a direct reflection of its growing economic substance .