Google · Bitcoin · Ethereum · CoinDesk
Ethereum (ETH) has published a coordinated post-quantum migration, but Bitcoin has not done the same
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A venture capitalist who has spent a decade backing deep-tech and quantum hardware startups says the bitcoin BTC $ 73,826.44 industry is fixated on the wrong half of the quantum problem, the wallet keys instead of the encrypted messages already moving between exchanges, bridges and custodians today.
Key facts
- The Global Risk Institute, cited in the same Citi report, puts the probability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arriving by 2034 at between 19% and 34%
- Gault is CEO of networking firm ZeroTier and a founding partner of 7percent Ventures, a London- and San Francisco-based deep-tech firm whose portfolio includes British quantum-computing startup
- CoinShares argued in a February report that the wallet-key fear is overstated, estimating only about 10,200 BTC are concentrated enough to move markets if stolen
- The conversation since that paper has centered on the roughly 6.9 million BTC sitting in addresses with exposed public keys and Bitcoin's missing post-quantum migration plan
Summary
Security experts warn that the most urgent quantum threat to bitcoin and the broader financial system is not wallet keys but the encrypted authentication data already moving between institutions and being quietly harvested today. Adversaries are pursuing a “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy, stockpiling encrypted interbank messages, payment records and digital signatures to unlock once quantum computers become powerful enough, a risk Google and Citi have both begun modeling on aggressive timelines. While Ethereum has begun a coordinated post-quantum migration and Google is targeting 2029 for its own transition, Bitcoin and major crypto exchanges and custodians have yet to commit publicly to similar protections for their wire-level signing infrastructure.