Trainer argues that the SpaceX S-1 registration statement exposes a litany of weaknesses
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Trainer argues correctly that the investors who are expected to buy $80 billion in SpaceX shares in the IPO will get exert zero influence over how the enterprise is run.
Key facts
By his calculation, the bogey for success, starting at the expected $1.75 trillion market cap, is $1.1 trillion in revenues and $248 billion in net profits
In 2025, SpaceX earned a negative 7% on sales, and a minus 3% on ROIC
In the S-1, SpaceX brags that it’s targeting the biggest Total Addressable Market in world history at $26.5 trillion
And its capex from AI alone hit almost $8 billion in Q1, and as the S-1 states, will ramp fast from there
Summary
David Trainer, CEO of research firm New Constructs, is taking a highly contrarian view of the looming SpaceX IPO that’s generating more excitement than any debut in stock market history. Put simply, Trainer brands SpaceX projected valuation of $1.75 trillion market cap, biggest by far for any post-offering number of all-time, as “truly out of this world,” and instructs folks and fund to stay away from an investment that the basic math stamps as beyond lousy. Trainer argues that the SpaceX S-1 registration statement exposes a litany of weaknesses. But because it’s Musk, and the biggest IPO ever, and that everyone’s vying to get a part of it, the exchanges are going along with it.