CME data shows traders now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for most of 2026
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Target rate probabilities for the December Fed meeting.
Key facts
In a Saturday post, analyst Lucky noted that BTC has struggled during previous chair transitions: it fell 84% after Janet Yellen took over in January 2014, 73% after Jerome Powell started in February
Bitcoin’s sell-off came as the 2-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.14%, its highest level since February 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $74,190 on Saturday, its lowest level in more than a month, despite pro-crypto Kevin Warsh being sworn in as Federal Reserve chairman a day earlier
CME data shows traders now expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for most of 2026, with futures pricing pointing to a possible 25 basis point hike in December
Summary
Rising short-term bond yields and Warsh's hawkish comments in the past are reviving fears of a December rate hike, which could slam the brakes on Bitcoin's recovery. Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $74,190 on Saturday, its lowest level in more than a month, despite pro-crypto Kevin Warsh being sworn in as Federal Reserve chairman a day earlier. Higher odds of a rate hike in 2026 are pressuring the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin has historically struggled during years marked by Federal Reserve leadership changes. Bitcoin’s sell-off came as the 2-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.14%, its highest level since February 2025.