The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes, released Wednesday, failed to bring the good news Bitcoin traders had been hoping
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The committee held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but four members dissented, the most divided Fed meeting since 1992, and a growing bloc wanted to strip the statement of any language suggesting cuts were on the way.
Key facts
The week of May 15, Iranian escalation pushed oil above $110, drove Treasury yields to cycle highs, lifted Fed hike odds, and triggered nearly $1 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows, snapping a six-week — It was sitting around $77,300 on May 20, roughly 38.7% below its October 2025 ATH
The historical precedent most relevant here is the 2022 hiking cycle: as the Fed moved its benchmark rate from near zero to above 5%, and Bitcoin fell from roughly $69,000 to $15,500
By May 20, CME FedWatch was showing a 54.1% probability of a rate hike by December, with only 1.5% odds assigned to any easing
Summary
Bitcoin's 2026 bull case rested on one assumption: that the Fed's next serious move would be a cut, but Wednesday's minutes made clear that assumption is no longer safe. The Federal Reserve's April meeting minutes, released Wednesday, failed to bring the good news Bitcoin traders had been hoping for most of the year. At the beginning of the year, futures traders were pricing two or more rate cuts before year-end and treating another hike as something close to impossible. When the Fed is expected to cut rates, money gets cheaper, yields fall, the dollar softens, and investors are more willing to hold risky, volatile assets (including Bitcoin).