Polymarket · Donald Trump · Bitcoin · Iran · U.S. · JD Vance · Bitcoin.com News
Prediction market traders on Polymarket have placed more than $154 million in bets on whether the United States and Iran
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The Polymarket contract, titled “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?”, launched April 8, 2026, and has recorded $154.44 million in total volume across multiple date-based outcome contracts.
Key facts
- Bitcoin reacted swiftly to the diplomatic developments, spiking from a local low of $74,192 to roughly $77,000 on the Bitstamp BTC /USD hourly chart as of May 23, 2026, a move traders attributed
- The May 31 contract holds the most active short-term trading at $42.8 million in volume and 62% odds
- The Polymarket contract, titled “US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?”, launched April 8, 2026, and has recorded $154.44 million in total volume across multiple date-based outcome contracts
- The nearest deadline, May 26, 2026, carries $3.9 million in volume, with Polymarket traders pricing a 56% chance of resolution
Summary
Prediction market traders on Polymarket have placed more than $154 million in bets on whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal in 2026, as President Donald Trump described his decision as a “solid 50/50” between accepting a diplomatic agreement and resuming military strikes. Polymarket’s US-Iran peace market hit $154M in total volume, with December 31, 2026, contracts at 91% odds. Trump described his Iran decision as “50/50” on May 23, 2026, triggering emergency talks with Vance, Hegseth, and Gen. A proposed 60-day ceasefire extension could open the Strait of Hormuz and ease sanctions on Iran by mid-2026. Bitcoin spiked to an intraday high of $77,303 on Bitstamp at 4:30 p.m.