Polymarket · US Congress · Iran · U.S. · CoinDesk
Crypto prediction markets are turning into dangerous national security risks, and Congress wants to ban them
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An in-depth investigation into insider trading by Bubblemaps analysts reveal how accurate bets on U.S. attacks on Iran were, exposing a trend that experts fear poses immense risks to the United States’ national security.
Key facts
- Later that month, a study found that only 3% of “informed” traders drove accuracy, while 97% did not
- Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have skyrocketed, with more than $1 billion alone this year
- According to Bubblemaps, nine accounts connected to Polymarket made more $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations
- Mike Levin recently said on X that the “insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known,” which is why he and Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS
Summary
Analysts at Bubblemaps say a cluster of 80 highly accurate bets on U.S. military actions against Iran on the Polymarket platform are so precise that “luck alone cannot explain” the results. Bubblemaps’ CEO warns that adversaries could mine prediction markets for clues to U.S. war plans, turning them into tools of intelligence and information warfare and potentially endangering lives. The revelations come as lawmakers push the DEATH BETS Act to ban war-related contracts and as Polymarket touts new Chainalysis-backed oversight, even as it denies tolerating insider trading and says it uses AI and blockchain forensics to flag suspicious activity. Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO, expressed deep concern over the national security implications of this new alleged wave of insider trading.