Traders Price Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 as New Fed Boss Kevin Warsh Inherits 3.8% Inflation
·2 min read
Compiled by KHAO Editorial
— aggregated from 4 sources.
See llms.txt for citation guidance.
✓ KHAO Verified
Traders have largely abandoned expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with CME Fedwatch data showing 95% to 98% odds of no change at any of the upcoming meetings, and prediction market bettors backing that view for June with tens of millions of dollars.
Key facts
Warsh has also advocated for a faster reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which stands near $6.5 trillion to $6.7 trillion
The Fed’s target range sits at 3.50% to 3.75% after three 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026, at a White House ceremony hosted by President Trump
Traders have largely abandoned expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with CME Fedwatch data showing 95% to 98% odds of no change at any of the upcoming meetings, and prediction market
Summary
Markets now price the Fed holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026, ending earlier bets on cuts. Kalshi and Polymarket traders have placed over $42M combined on no rate change at the June 17 Fed meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance on inflation and balance sheet keeps borrowing costs elevated. The Fed’s target range sits at 3.50% to 3.75% after three 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025.