Google · Bitcoin · Ethereum · Decrypt
Google's recent research suggests a 500,000-qubit machine could break that encryption in minutes
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Google’s Q-Day estimate—for when a quantum computer powerful enough to break current cryptography comes online—is 2032, but other researchers think it could happen as early as 2030.
Key facts
- An estimated 6.7 to 7 million BTC sit in wallets where public keys are already exposed—a concentrated target
- The analysts pointed to adaptability—not current design—as the defining factor of long-term resilience, flagging BIP-360 and BIP-361 as proposed upgrades to watch for Bitcoin's quantum readiness
- Google’s Q-Day estimate—for when a quantum computer powerful enough to break current cryptography comes online—is 2032, but other researchers think it could happen as early as 2030
- Google's recent research suggests a 500,000-qubit machine could break that encryption in minutes
Summary
Quantum computing advances are shortening the timeline for real attacks on crypto, with recent targets revised to 2030-2032. Bitcoin is more exposed than Ethereum, Citi researchers said, because fixing the problem requires a challenging governance consensus. An estimated 6.7–7 million Bitcoin in dormant wallets sit with public keys already exposed, making them a prime target. As quantum computing advances faster than expected, a fault line is emerging in the crypto world: Bitcoin may be significantly more vulnerable than Ethereum —and the difference has less to do with code than with politics. In a research note published this week, Citi analysts warned that recent breakthroughs have shortened the timeline for practical quantum attacks on digital assets.