Bitcoin · U.S. Treasury · CryptoSlate
Markets are moving toward a new global financial crisis
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Bond yields and oil are already near stress levels, but a 2008-style break still needs confirmation from credit spreads, volatility, and financial conditions before Bitcoin faces its real macro test.
Key facts
- The Bitcoin page shows BTC near $78,000 going into the weekend, down about 2.8% over 24 hours
- To close out the week, the US 30-year Treasury yield was near 5.109%, the UK 30-year gilt was near 5.857%, Brent was near $108.54, and the VIX was near 18.53
- The same holds for a 6% UK 30-year gilt or Brent above $115
- The second part is still missing: high-yield spreads above 4.5% to 5.0%, VIX above 25 to 30, and NFCI above zero
Summary
A new global financial crisis is not confirmed, but the path toward one is now visible enough to map. To close out the week, the US 30-year Treasury yield was near 5.109%, the UK 30-year gilt was near 5.857%, Brent was near $108.54, and the VIX was near 18.53. Those numbers point to a market moving toward the part of the map where a bond shock and an oil shock can start forcing other markets to respond. But a 2008-style event needs more than expensive government debt and energy.