Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve (FED) · Kevin Warsh · US Senate · Crypto Briefing
The strong YES pricing suggests that participants view the transition timeline as effectively settled
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Key developments to monitor include the official swearing-in date for Kevin Warsh and any statements from the Federal Reserve or related government officials regarding the transition.
Key facts
- The market “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026” currently shows a 99.8% YES probability, consistent with Powell’s temporary role until Warsh assumes the position
- The announcement of Powell’s temporary role and Warsh’s impending swearing-in appears highly supportive of a YES outcome for the market predicting Powell’s exit by May 31, 2026
- The Federal Reserve Board has appointed Jerome Powell as Chair pro tempore, ensuring continuity in leadership until Kevin Warsh is formally sworn in as the new Chair
- This transition follows the Senate’s confirmation of Warsh, marking a procedural step in the Federal Reserve’s leadership change
Summary
The market “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026” currently shows a 99.8% YES probability, consistent with Powell’s temporary role until Warsh assumes the position. – Market activity suggests Powell’s exit as Fed Chair by May 31 is nearly certain, consistent with the temporary appointment., The confirmation of Kevin Warsh appears to increase the likelihood of a smooth transition, as indicated by market pricing., The designation of Powell as acting Chair supports expectations of continuity until Warsh is formally sworn in. The Federal Reserve Board has appointed Jerome Powell as Chair pro tempore, ensuring continuity in leadership until Kevin Warsh is formally sworn in as the new Chair. This transition follows the Senate’s confirmation of Warsh, marking a procedural step in the Federal Reserve’s leadership change.