The Information · White House · Donald Trump · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · CryptoSlate
These forces could push Bitcoin higher this week even as US-Iran tensions continue to rattle markets
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Traders are watching CPI, Washington’s crypto vote and expiring put hedges as Bitcoin holds near $80,000 despite US-Iran tensions.
Key facts
- According to CryptoSlate's data, the largest digital asset briefly dipped on Sunday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a US peace proposal, then recovered above $82,000
- Since mid-January, Bitcoin’s aggregate gamma exposure has been deeply negative, reaching roughly -$3.2 billion around the $82,000 strike, according to the firm’s analysis
- The result has been a market that moves violently intraday but repeatedly returns to the $78,000 to $82,000 area
- Polymarket traders also showed a 55.6% probability that the Fed will deliver no rate cuts in 2026, while traders assigned a 95.5% probability to the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
Summary
Bitcoin is entering one of its most consequential trading weeks since its February correction, with Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, inflation expectations hardening, and options traders positioning for a possible break above $85,000. According to CryptoSlate's data, the largest digital asset briefly dipped on Sunday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a US peace proposal, then recovered above $82,000 before easing near $81,034 as of press time. The move kept Bitcoin inside the narrow range that has defined trading in recent weeks, even as geopolitical risk continued to feed into energy markets and rate expectations. Notably, Trump called Iran’s counteroffer “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” after Tehran sought war reparations, the unfreezing of blocked financial assets, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.