Thaksin likely to take low-key role

Could still help position Pheu Thai as an experienced alternative

PUBLISHED : 10 May 2026 at 06:29

WRITER: Mongkol Bangprapa

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Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is due to be released on parole on Monday, a development that has reignited speculation over how much influence he could regain within the Pheu Thai Party as it struggles to retain political dominance.

Thaksin, 76, returned to prison late last year after the Supreme Court ruled that his six-month hospital stay could not be counted toward his sentence. Although his scheduled release date was Sept 9, he is among 859 inmates granted early release under general parole criteria.

He is expected to leave Klong Prem Central Prison on Monday and remain under probation until September. His electronic monitoring bracelet could be removed after about four months.

Pheu Thai leader Julapun Amornvivat has sought to downplay speculation surrounding Thaksin's political role, insisting the former premier will not hold any formal advisory position in the party.

Mr Julapun described the parole as a private family matter, while acknowledging Thaksin remains the party's "spiritual figure".

Political analysts believe the Pheu Thai patriarch is likely to adopt a markedly different strategy from his previous political comeback attempts.

Rather than returning with an aggressive political style, Thaksin is expected to maintain a lower profile and allow his nephew, political newcomer Yodchanan Wongsawat, to gradually establish himself within the party.

Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), told the Bangkok Post that Thaksin's release would likely boost morale within Pheu Thai.

It would reinforce his symbolic importance among supporters, while also strengthening the party's bargaining power within the coalition government.

He added Thaksin's presence could also command a degree of deference from Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

During the parole period, Thaksin is expected to remain politically active behind the scenes by advising party figures and helping rebuild political momentum.

Mr Phichai said his role could expand further once his sentence formally ends in September and after he completes a full year of imprisonment.

The analyst noted that the once-unified red-shirt movement has fragmented over time, with support for Pheu Thai evolving.

The pro-democracy wing has distanced itself from the party after Pheu Thai formed an alliance with conservative forces and failed to pursue democratic reforms, including constitutional amendments and political amnesty measures, he said.

However, a sizeable core of loyal supporters remains personally attached to Thaksin. Mr Phichai pointed to Pheu Thai's party-list vote, which he said still reflects a loyal voter base of around three to four million people, although far below the party's peak support of more than 10 million voters.

Phichai: Release will boost morale

## New family figure

Mr Phichai said Thaksin is likely to support Mr Yodchanan rather than overshadow him, as weakening his nephew would offer no political benefit.

"Thaksin can no longer return to frontline politics. In terms of family representation, Mr Yodchanan is likely to become the key figure for Pheu Thai," he said.

He compared the situation with the administration of former prime minister Srettha Thavisin, who was viewed by some within Pheu Thai as an outsider rather than part of the Shinawatra political network.

During Mr Srettha's tenure, Thaksin made public remarks that appeared inconsistent with government positions. However, with Mr Yodchanan now emerging within the party, any disagreements are more likely to be handled privately rather than through the media, Mr Phichai said.

Asked whether Thaksin's return could trigger renewed political tensions or street protests, Mr Phichai said the former premier remains a deeply polarising figure whose presence attracts criticism, particularly from conservative groups and political opponents.

He said online political tensions are centred around several major camps, including supporters of Mr Anutin, loyalists of Pheu Thai, the People's Party base and elements of the conservative establishment.

While these groups continue to clash on social media, the likelihood of mass street protests remains low unless Thaksin resumes a highly visible political role, he said.

"If he keeps a low profile, tensions may remain manageable. But if he becomes too vocal again, he could quickly become a target for renewed political attacks," Mr Phichai said.

Olarn: Thaksin to remain symbolic

## Avoiding the spotlight

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, said Thaksin is likely to continue serving as a symbolic figure while avoiding direct political confrontation.

"There will be attempts to reshape the party's image to show that Pheu Thai can survive without Thaksin. But in reality, the party and Thaksin cannot truly be separated," he said.

Mr Olarn said Thaksin appears to understand that he can no longer dominate politics in the way he once did.

Ongoing legal cases involving himself, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra and his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra are also likely to constrain how openly he can engage in politics.

Rather than taking centre stage, Thaksin is expected to position himself as a senior political figure who selectively offers advice on national issues, the analyst said.

Thaksin, he said. will need to carefully balance his influence without overshadowing Mr Yodchanan or the party leadership.

"Thaksin still attracts enormous media attention wherever he goes, and he enjoys speaking publicly. But the party also wants to project the image that it can survive without him," he said.

Mr Olarn said Thaksin could still play a valuable political role for Pheu Thai, particularly if the ruling Bhumjaithai Party comes under mounting criticism for lacking vision or governing ineffectively.

In that scenario, Thaksin could help position Pheu Thai as a more experienced governing alternative ahead of the next general election and prevent the People's Party from gaining power, he said.

However, Thaksin's ability to mobilise mass support has weakened considerably compared with the past, with many local political networks and influential families having shifted toward Bhumjaithai.

Mr Olarn said both Thaksin and Pheu Thai are likely to avoid sensitive issues such as Section 112 and constitutional reform, instead pursuing a cautious strategy aimed at gradually rebuilding public confidence.

"If the government fails to solve problems effectively, Thaksin may propose alternative solutions in a constructive way rather than directly attacking the administration," he said.

Such an approach, often associated with senior political figures, could help rebuild the party's standing over the long term, he added.

"But if they continue criticising, devaluing and attacking opponents as they did in the past, I do not believe the party's recovery will happen," Mr Olarn said.

Mr Yodchanan has been assigned to a ministry with relatively low political confrontation, allowing him to steadily build support ahead of future elections.

"It is better for the party to remain in the game and gradually build political advantage and popularity through Mr Yodchanan," he said.

Mr Olarn also suggested in the future, conservative factions may reopen talks with Thaksin, paving the way for Pheu Thai to regain power.

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- Thaksin shinawatra

- Pheu thai party

- Thailand politics

- Klong prem central prison

- Yodchanan wongsawat

- Thai government

- Political parole