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There are some signs that the drawdown may have slowed slightly in recent days
Compiled by KHAO Editorial — aggregated from 1 outlet + 4 references discovered via search. See llms.txt for citation guidance.
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Estimating global inventories involves both art and science.
Key facts
- Morgan Stanley estimates global oil stockpiles dropped by about 4.8 million barrels a day between March 1 and April 25, far exceeding the previous peak for a quarterly drawdown in data compiled
- Kayrros said stockpiles in Japan and India are at an at least 10-year seasonal low, down 50% and 10%, respectively, since the war began
- A lot of the inventory and spare capacity has been depleted already,” Chevron Corp. Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner told Bloomberg TV on May 1
- US distillate stockpiles were at their lowest point since 2005 at the end of last week, while gasoline stockpiles were hovering near their lowest seasonal levels since 2014
Summary
The world has burned through oil inventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf, eating into the buffer that protects against supply shocks. The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments and industries with fewer options to cushion the impact of the loss of more than a billion barrels of supply, two months into the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Morgan Stanley estimates global oil stockpiles dropped by about 4.8 million barrels a day between March 1 and April 25, far exceeding the previous peak for a quarterly drawdown in data compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crucially, the system also requires a minimum level of oil, which means that the “operational minimum” is reached long before the inventories hit zero, said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of global commodities research.