Moody's upbeat on economy's strength

PUBLISHED : 7 May 2026 at 05:12

WRITER: Wichit Chantanusornsiri

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Moody's Ratings has identified Thailand as one of five emerging economies best positioned to withstand global shocks, highlighting stronger policy frameworks and improved resilience over the past five years.

In its latest report, carried by the Star newspaper in Malaysia, the agency grouped Thailand with Malaysia, India, Indonesia and Mexico among the most resilient performers. It said that despite facing Covid-19, global interest rate tightening, banking sector stress and trade tensions, these economies avoided sharp spikes in risk premiums and maintained market access.

Moody's said volatility in bond yields and exchange rates persists in line with global cycles, but credit risk spreads have remained relatively stable, reflecting investor confidence in macroeconomic management. Reforms such as inflation targeting, exchange rate flexibility, improved debt management and deeper local currency markets have enabled these countries to absorb shocks without triggering funding crises.

Responding to the assessment that Thailand can withstand economic shocks, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said this reflects the government's efforts to outline a clear economic reform plan, particularly its focus on clean energy investment. He said regulatory easing, including the Board of Investment's Fast Pass scheme, helped accelerate investment, with actual investment in the first quarter rising 18% year-on-year.

Moody's also views Thailand as economically stable, supported by a current account surplus and international reserves of about $280 billion. Including forward positions of $20 billion, total reserves reach around $300 billion, equivalent to 10 months of imports. Even if all short-term external debt were withdrawn, reserves would remain 2.5 times higher, he said.

Unemployment remains below 1%, while inflation is relatively low, although it recently rose to 2.9% due to higher domestic costs linked to the energy crisis. Mr Ekniti added Moody's considers Thai government bonds highly resilient and liquid. About 99% of government borrowing is domestic, while bond yields remain low.

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- KEYWORDS

- Thailand economy

- Moody's credit rating

- Economic resilience

- Foreign investment thailand

- Macroeconomic stability

- Ekniti nitithanprapas

- Thailand international reserves