Donald Trump · CNBC Technology
Prediction markets prepare to invade one of crypto’s biggest and riskiest trades
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There’s a land grab underway in the U.S. for perpetual futures, one of the biggest and riskiest parts of the crypto trading world, and prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly want a piece of it.
Key facts
- In 2025, perps trading volume climbed to a nominal $61.7 trillion, a 29% increase from 2024, according to data from CryptoQuant
- Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets hub last year through a partnership with Kalshi, and it became the platform's fastest-ever growing product line by revenue, with 11 billion contracts traded
- Today, perps account for more than 70% of all the volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko
- I don't see this as an immediate threat," said Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street
Summary
Perpetual futures, better known by users as "perps," are futures contracts without expiration dates that have seen explosive growth since President Trump returned to office. Today, perps account for more than 70% of all the volume on centralized crypto exchanges, according to CoinGecko. The convergence of prediction markets and leveraged trading could reshape how Americans trade on real-world events. For the incumbent crypto platforms themselves, however, analysts have largely downplayed any potential risks posed by challenges from the predictions markets.