Polymarket · Fortune Technology
Proponents of prediction markets argue that gathering the wisdom of the crowd is providing a public good
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“The [prediction market] industry is giving the power back to the people,” said Jay Malavia, the cofounder of a startup that is creating a trading terminal for prediction market users, in a previous interview with Fortune.
Key facts
- In the past two years, the popularity of prediction markets has grown to the point that users traded over $1.2 billion on the Super Bowl, and more than $120 million on the Oscars
- Burmeister’s $2,000 would grow to $2,065 in a year if he didn’t touch the funds
- In October 2024, then 21-year-old Samuel Sharkey first heard about Kalshi through an ad on Instagram
- When someone puts in more than $250, they earn 3.25% of annual interest
Summary
Nevin Burmeister first downloaded Kalshi on July 8, two days after his 18th birthday. He is one of millions of people taking part in the recent craze for prediction markets, which allow users to bet on anything—from who will win the newest season of Survivor, to the price of gas this week, to whether the U.S. will take control of Greenland. Kalshi controls 89% of the U.S. market for these platforms. As for Burmeister, his first wager on Kalshi was on the Rotten Tomatoes score of the latest Fantastic Four movie. “Kalshi was my entrance into gambling,” he said.