Iran · Federal Reserve (FED) · Donald Trump · Jerome Powell · Fortune Technology
For the Fed to cut, adding more liquidity to the economy while prices are already elevated would be highly unusual—but
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The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that nonfarm payroll employment increased in March, up 178,000, and the employment rate held steady at 4.3%.
Key facts
- The base interest rate is, at present, between 3.5% and 3.75%, and investors are pricing a more than 97% chance that it will stay there at the next meeting, on April 28, per CME’s FedWatch monitor
- Some 20 million barrels of oil typically flowed through the strait every day, about 20% of global supply
- The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that nonfarm payroll employment increased in March, up 178,000, and the employment rate held steady at 4.3%
- With President Trump’s focus squarely on Iran at present, Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve are getting some respite from the Oval Office’s attention
Summary
With President Trump’s focus squarely on Iran at present, Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve are getting some respite from the Oval Office’s attention. The odds of a Fed hold firmed up in traders’ minds following Friday’s inflation data, which showed prices rose 3.3% over the past 12 months, with gas prices playing a major part in the increase. This rise stems from the Iran conflict: Oil prices have increased because Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf through which exports from the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq all flow. Over the weekend, hopes that relations between Iran and the U.S. might improve were dashed: Vice President JD Vance said following peace talks, Iran had chosen “not to accept” the offered terms. The expectation of a permanent deal being reached sooner rather than later fell sharply on Polymarket overnight.