Donald Trump · White House · Iran · Fortune Technology
Labor market turns upside down as the economy can shed jobs and still keep unemployment low amid immigration reversal
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The most closely watched U.S. economic indicators have turned upside down as President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown sends the labor force into reverse.
Key facts
- As a result, total net unauthorized immigration for 2025 reached –548,000, about 50% more than the Congressional Budget Office’s latest projection of –365,000
- The declines were concentrated among men in their twenties and thirties, women between ages 20 and 24, and men over 55
- In fact, the 4.3% unemployment rate in March was little changed from the 4.2% rate in February 2025, Trump’s first full month back in the White House
- For years, monthly job gains of around 125,000 to 150,000 were considered necessary to absorb new entrants into the workforce
Summary
According to a report from Dallas Fed economists on Tuesday, the breakeven rate of employment growth, or the number of net new jobs needed each month to keep the unemployment rate steady, went negative during the summer and fall of last year. That means the economy can shed jobs without lifting the jobless rate, signaling an overall balanced labor market despite a lack of net hiring. For years, monthly job gains of around 125,000 to 150,000 were considered necessary to absorb new entrants into the workforce. Meanwhile, Trump’s trade war last year and war on Iran this year have created economic uncertainty that’s fueling a low-hire, low-fire job market.